Welcome to Probability Theory! For course info and policies, please see the syllabus. For grades, log into Moodle. If you need help or have questions, please contact Prof. Wright.

**Prof. Wright's drop-in hours:** typically Mon. 11am–noon, Tues. 2–3pm, Wed. 9–10am, and Fri. 10–11am in RMS 405. Check Google Calendar for up-to-date availability, or email to schedule an appointment.

**Help sessions:** Mondays 7:00–8:30pm in RNS 208

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Today

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Thursday

September 8

September 8

What is probability? Sample Spaces and Events

Do the following before next class:

- Complete the Introductory Survey, if you haven't done so already.
- Read the Syllabus and complete the Syllabus Quiz (on Moodle).
- From the textbook, read §1.1 and §1.2, and watch the accompanying video Sample Spaces, Events, and Axioms.
*Answer the three questions embedded in the video before class on Tuesday.* - Read §1.3 in the textbook, and watch the accompanying video Counting Methods.
*Answer the three questions embedded in the video before class on Tuesday.* - Take a look at Homework 1. Begin the problems from §1.1.

Tuesday

September 13

September 13

Axioms of Probability; Permutations and Combinations

Do the following before next class:

- Review the solutions to the problems from class.
- Re-read §1.3 in the textbook.
- Watch the video Four Types of Couting Problems and answer the questions embedded in the video before class on Thursday.
- Work on Homework 1. Try to finish the problems from §1.1 and §1.2.

Thursday

September 15

September 15

More counting methods

Do the following before next class:

- Review the solutions to the problems from class.
- Watch the video Conditional Probability and answer the questions embedded in the video before coming to class on Tuesday. Also §1.4 in the textbook, paying special attention to the examples.
- Read §1.5 in the textbook. Watch the video Independence and answer the questions embedded in the video before coming to class on Tuesday.
- Finish Homework 1. Write your solutions clearly and neatly. Upload your solutions to Homework 1 on Moodle.

Bonus video: John Urschel-NFL Math Whiz

Do the following before next class:

- Review the solutions to the problems from class.
- Watch the video Simulation of Random Events and answer the questions embedded in the video before coming to class on Thursday. Also read §1.6 in the textbook.
- If possible, bring a computer with Mathematica or R to class on Thursday.
- Begin Homework 2. This homework is due next Tuesday, but it's important to start early.

Thursday

September 22

September 22

Independence; Simulation of random events

Do the following before next class:

- Review the solutions to the problems from class.
- Watch the video Discrete Random Variables and answer the questions embedded in the video before coming to class on Tuesday. Also read §2.1 and §2.2 in the textbook.
- Watch the video Expected Value and Standard Deviation and answer the questions embedded in the video before coming to class on Tuesday. Also read §2.3 in the textbook.
- Finish Homework 2. Write your solutions clearly and neatly. Upload your solutions to Homework 2 on Moodle.

*MSCS Tailgate Party: Wednesday, September 28, 4:30–6:30pm in RNS 150 and outside*

Do the following before next class:

- Watch the video The Binomial Distribution and answer the questions embedded in the video before coming to class on Thursday. Also read §2.4 in the textbook.
- Begin Homework 3...

Thursday

September 29

September 29

Chebyshev's Inequality and the Binomial Distribution

Do the following before next class:

- Review the solutions from the problems in class, especially those involving Chebyshev's Inequality.
- Watch the video The Poisson Distribution and answer the questions embedded in the video before coming to class on Tuesday. Also read §2.5 in the textbook.
- Watch the video The Hypergeometric Distribution and answer the questions embedded in the video. Also read §2.6.1 in the textbook.
- Finish Homework 3...

Tuesday

October 4

October 4

The Poisson and Hypergeometric Distributions

Homework 3

due

due

Oct. 4: *Math Across the Cannon* featuring Satyan Devadoss colloquium 3:30pm at Carleton; public lecture 7pm in Viking Theater

Do the following before next class:

- to be determined...

Thursday

October 6

October 6

Hypergeometric Distribution; Review

Do the following before next class:

- Review the Exam 1 Information. Study for the exam.

Tuesday

October 11

October 11

**Exam 1:**covering sections 1.1 through 2.4 in the textbook

Do the following before next class:

Thursday

October 13

October 13

The Negative Binomial Distribution

Enjoy fall break! No class October 18.

Do the following before next class:

Thursday

October 20

October 20

Moment-generating functions

Do the following before next class:

Tuesday

October 25

October 25

Simulation of discrete random variables; Begin continuous random variables

Do the following before next class:

Thursday

October 27

October 27

Expected values of continuous distributions

Do the following before next class:

Tuesday

November 1

November 1

Normal and exponential distributions

Do the following before next class:

Thursday

November 3

November 3

Exponential and Gamma distributions

Do the following before next class:

Tuesday

November 8

November 8

**Exam 2**: covering sections 2.1 through 3.4 in the textbook

Do the following before next class:

Thursday

November 10

November 10

Transformations of continuous random variables

Do the following before next class:

Tuesday

November 15

November 15

Joint Distributions and Expected Values

Do the following before next class:

Thursday

November 17

November 17

Covariance and correlation; Linear Combinations

Do the following before next class:

Tuesday

November 22

November 22

Linear combinations of random variables

Have a Thanksgiving! No class November 24.

Do the following before next class:

Tuesday

November 29

November 29

Conditional distributions and expectation; Central Limit Theorem???

Do the following before next class:

Thursday

December 1

December 1

Limit Theorems

Do the following before next class:

Tuesday

December 6

December 6

Bivariate tranformations

Do the following before next class:

Thursday

December 8

December 8

Order statistics

Do the following before next class:

Tuesday

December 13

December 13

Review day

Homework 10 due

Complete the take-home exam problems. Bring your solutions to the in-class exam on Friday. Study for the in-class exam.

Monday

December 19

December 19

**Final Exam 9:00–11:00am**